Understanding and forecasting trends in student enrollment and needs can be one of the most important components for district leaders when crafting a budget and allocating resources. It can also be one of the most challenging, especially given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on student enrollment, attendance, and how students are educated.
That’s why one of Connecticut’s largest public school districts turned to the School and State Finance Project to develop accurate student enrollment projections that would assist district leadership in their long-term planning, increase operational effectiveness, and maximize resources for students.
Using its data expertise and knowledge of the district, our team produced 10-year enrollment projections at the district, grade, and school levels, and created specific projections for special education and non-special education outplacements.
To produce the enrollment projections, our team used standard projection techniques, including the cohort-survival method, to develop an initial set of projections based on the National Center for Education Statistics’ (NCES) grade progression rate and enrollment rate methods. From there, we created an enrollment projection model and incorporated U.S. Census population and birth rate data, as well as the expertise of district leadership, to adjust for how future population changes could impact student enrollment.
Along with the 10-year enrollment projections, our team created a formal report, one-page summary, and a presentation for district leadership outlining the methodologies used in calculating the enrollment projections and key takeaways and findings. We also developed an interactive Excel model for district staff to explore school-level projections.
As a result of our work, district leadership now has accurate 10-year enrollment projections that provide vital information and insight into how the district’s student population is projected to change. These projections will not only help district leadership better understand and prepare for student enrollment trends, they will also play a pivotal role in school construction planning, resource allocation, and budget development.
